All-Ireland SFC: Who needs what in final group games?

Right, here we go then: for the last time - at least for the foreseeable future - the All-Ireland Senior Football Championship has arrived at the all-important final round of group games.

From next year, the competition will have another new guise, with the round-robin phase scrapped in favour of a new format. More on that here.

But this weekend, four teams will have their dreams of lifting the Sam Maguire Cup shattered for another year at least as 16 is whittled down to 12.

Simply put, there are eight matches this weekend: four on Saturday and four on Sunday. As it stands, holders Armagh are the only team guaranteed a spot in the All-Ireland quarter-finals.

As for the rest, a wide assortment of possibilities await. Let's get into it.

A quick reminder: the team that finishes first in their group moves straight through to the quarter-finals.

Second and third earns teams a preliminary quarter-final spot (those finishing second will have home advantage), while fourth is knocked out of the championship.

Tyrone v Cavan, Brewster Park, Sunday, 16:00 BST

Donegal v Mayo, Dr Hyde Park, Sunday, 16:00 BST

Permutations everywhere you look here.

After two games, Donegal, Mayo, Tyrone and Cavan all sit on two points heading into the final round-robin weekend, the first time this has happened since this format was introduced.

Ulster champions Donegal comfortably hold the most superior scoring difference (+16), thanks to their 19-point victory over Cavan in round two.

However, the first tie-breaker is head-to-head, and given that Tyrone beat Donegal in the first round, the Red Hands will top the group if they beat Cavan and Donegal overcome Mayo, a sequence which would eliminate the Connacht county.

Tyrone will also finish top if they win and Donegal and Mayo play out a draw, which would knock Cavan out.

Courtesy of their win over Tyrone last time out, Mayo will top the group if they beat Donegal and Tyrone defeat Cavan. This would eliminate Cavan.

Donegal will top the group if they beat Mayo and Cavan get the better of Tyrone, thus sending the Red Hands out. Jim McGuinness' Donegal will also secure first place if they win and the Tyrone-Cavan game ends in a draw, eliminating Mayo.

Both games ending in a draw is a highly unlikely occurrence, but if that does happen, Donegal will top the group on scoring difference while Cavan will finish bottom.

Mayo will finish top if they beat Donegal and Tyrone beat Cavan. They will also finish top with victory over Donegal and a draw in the Tyrone-Cavan game.

Cavan can still finish top despite entering the weekend bottom. To do that, they will need to beat Tyrone and hope that Mayo see off Donegal, which would eliminate Donegal. If Cavan win and Donegal-Mayo ends in a draw, Cavan will finish at the summit and Tyrone will head for the exit door.

Jeopardy. That's what everyone wants and this group is full of it. It could go right down to the final kick.

Kerry v Meath, Tullamore, Saturday, 16:15 BST

Roscommon v Cork, Portlaoise, Saturday, 16:15 BST

Mercifully, this group's web won't take quite as long to untangle.

Kerry enter the weekend top after wins over Roscommon and Cork. Having already accrued four points, a win or draw against Meath will guarantee top spot for the Kingdom and a spot in the quarter-finals.

If Kerry and Roscommon win, Kerry will finish top and Cork will be eliminated. If Kerry and Cork win, Roscommon will be eliminated.

Meath are the only other team that can finish top, but they will obviously need to beat Kerry for that to happen.

The best Cork can do is finish third, but they'll need to beat Roscommon. If it ends in a draw, the Rossies will secure third.

Monaghan v Down, Athletic Grounds, Sunday, 14:00 BST

Louth v Clare, Portlaoise, Sunday, 14:00 BST

In stark contrast to Group One, this group's package of permutations is much slimmer.

The winner of the all-Ulster encounter between Monaghan and Down in Armagh will secure top spot.

Down have a slightly superior scoring difference so they will clinch top spot with a draw, which would signify remarkable progress for the Mournemen given they had not played an All-Ireland game since 2019 before this year.

Neither team can finish worse than second.

The losers of the Louth-Clare game will exit the championship. A draw will see Louth scrape through in third courtesy of their superior scoring difference.

Dublin v Derry, Pairc Esler, Saturday, 18:30 BST

Galway v Armagh, Breffni Park, Saturday, 18:30 BST

Even though Armagh have already locked up top spot, Group Four is sure to deliver some Saturday-night drama. Below the Orchardmen, there could be much to-ing and fro-ing.

Armagh face familiar foes Galway in a rerun of last year's All-Ireland final. After earning a crucial point in last-gasp fashion in their thriller against Derry a fortnight ago, the Tribesmen can still finish second and earn a home preliminary quarter-final.

To do that, they must beat Armagh and hope Derry beat Dublin in Newry. In that scenario, scoring difference would decide second place (Galway are on -1, with Derry on -4).

Dublin will finish second with victory or a draw over Derry, regardless of what happens in the Galway-Armagh game. If Dublin-Derry ends in a draw and Galway win, Derry will be eliminated.

If Dublin-Derry ends in a draw and Armagh win, Galway will exit the championship, meaning Derry will move into the next stage without having won a game.

Dublin will also finish second if they win and Galway-Armagh ends in a draw, eliminating Derry.

Derry are guaranteed survival with a win as they will edge out Dublin on the head-to-head rule.

If Derry and Galway both win, second place will be decided by scoring difference with Dublin knocked out. If Derry and Armagh win, Derry will finish second and Galway will be eliminated.

Derry will also finish second if they beat Dublin and Galway-Armagh ends in a draw.

So that's that. Come Sunday evening, the road ahead will show nothing but straight knockout for the final 12 teams.

Before that, expect endless twists and turns as we bid farewell to the All-Ireland group stage.

The preliminary quarter-finals will be played on the weekend of 21/22 June.

The quarter-finals will be played on 28/29 June.

The semi-finals will be staged on 12/13 July with the final at Croke Park on 27 July.