All Blacks in recovery mode but warning signs remain for Scots

Ian Foster, coach of the All Blacks, had a playful response when asked on Friday about his Scottish-born scrum-half, Finlay Christie, who was seven years old when his family left for New Zealand.

True, Scotland have amassed a fair amount of kilted Kiwis over the years, but without being unkind to Foster and his fellow tourists, a little history wouldn't go amiss here. The first New Zealand team to leave their shores were called The Originals. It was 1905 and the All Blacks moniker hadn't even been dreamed up yet.

The New Zealanders were coached by a fellow called Jimmy Duncan. One wonders where Jimmy's people hailed from originally. In the playing squad there was Duncan McGregor and William 'Billy' Wallace, Frank Glasgow and Alex McDonald. It might not be an outlandish suggestion that these lads might have their origins in this part of the world. So, maybe not quite 50-1, but let's not split hairs. Welcome back New Zealand, it's been too long.

Foster might have been in fun mood on Friday, but this year has been anything but a barrel of laughs for him. If you think Gregor Townsend has incurred the wrath of the Scotland supporters over poor results and the Finn Russell shenanigans then it's been a picnic compared to what Foster has come through.

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A historic first series loss to Ireland in the summer brought a level of supporter anger that came within a whisker of costing Foster his job. He was summoned to a meeting by his bosses at which it was suggested he might want to dispose of some of his assistant coaches and replace them with new ones. Foster refused.

Then New Zealand lost to South Africa in early August and the crisis deepened. Scott Robertson, head coach of the Crusaders, was contacted by the Auckland bigwigs. He was asked, confidentially and hypothetically of course, who he might choose as his specialist coaches should he ever be offered the top job. Robertson handed over a list.

Some of this leaked out in dribs and drabs. Foster was considered toast at the time. Most people knew that conversations were happening behind the scenes and all with knowledge of events reckoned that Foster's time was up. It was Joe Schmidt who apparently saved him.

Deemed an oracle for his great work in turning Leinster and Ireland around and making them European and Grand Slam winners, New Zealand Rugby wanted Schmidt on the coaching ticket, but Schmidt felt he couldn't coach with Robertson.

The exit strategy ended there. Foster remained and, New Zealand with Foster and Schmidt now a team, carried on to play the Springboks for a second time. The only expectation was of an All Blacks loss and, possibly, a bad one. Instead, they won a brilliant victory, then lost to Argentina for the first time ever, then annihilated the Wallabies by 50 points. To say it's been turbulent is understating it.

Foster has weathered the storm and is now on a run of five straight Test wins. The fourth was against Japan, a seven-point victory that was wholly unconvincing. Suddenly, Foster wasn't just getting it in the neck from a demanding rugby public who see any blip by the All Blacks as some of kind of national emergency. He was also getting it from some prominent rugby folk who had worn that black jersey themselves.

Jamie Joseph, the former New Zealand back-row and head coach of Japan, didn't hold back when assessing the Test between his own team and his own country. "Everyone is thinking about the All Blacks and that's part of their armour," he said of the intimidating nature of the iconic jersey. "Having played for the All Blacks, one of the things we used to talk about 25 years ago was that everyone was a wee bit scared of us. Perhaps that's not the case anymore."

Then he signed off by saying that the Brave Blossoms were off to play England, a better team than the All Blacks. Ouch.

Joseph's captain then added another thought. Michael Leitch, from Christchurch, is a magnificent rugby player and a wonderful and respected leader. "In the past, teams have come up against the All Blacks and psychologically you think they are unbeatable but now those cracks are showing."

Can Scotland be latest side to defy history?

Aura slipping, Cracks showing. The New Zealanders are used to getting flak from outside their own country - as kingpins of the sport, that's their cross to bear - but getting it from the likes of Joseph and Leitch must have stung. They kicked on for Europe with a world of criticism ringing in their ears, which was bad news for Wales.

When New Zealand beat away a brief show of defiance at the Principality, what they saw down the other end of the pitch was a team displaying all the anxiety and inferiority that Joseph had suggested a few weeks earlier was fading away. Wales folded amid a riot of attacking rugby. The All Blacks ended up with 55 points. Had it been 70 then the Welsh could have had no complaint.

So much for All Black vulnerability. So much for 'this is a great time to play them'. The truth is that other nations have passed them - Ireland and France for sure - but bitter experience makes you wonder how long that will remain the case.

Ireland beat the All Blacks in 2016 and again in 2018. Then it came to the World Cup quarter-final, instead of an autumn international, and New Zealand took them to the cleaners. They scored three tries in 32 minutes and won 46-14. Autumn victories were no good to Ireland at that point.

New Zealand lost the semi-final to England, but that was an England team playing to the absolute limit of its powers when winning 19-7. They put so much into beating the All Blacks that they scarcely turned up for the final. The Boks beat them out the gate.

Where are New Zealand now? They're in recovery mode, but it's still too early to say that they have recovered. Wales last week was a step in the right direction and what ferocity they showed on the day, in attack and defence.

Scotland have never beaten them. Everybody knows that. Thirty-one games in 117 years with 29 victories for the All Blacks and two draws. This year a few of their other big records fell, though. They'd never lost at home to Ireland and that fell. They'd never lost a series to Ireland and that fell. They'd never lost to Argentina and that fell, too.

Given the difficulty of their year they won't take Scotland lightly, no matter what the history of this fixture tells them and no matter what the Scots' indifferent form might indicate. They look like a team on a mission. Has the aura dimmed? It's a dangerous question for any opponent to ponder. Just ask Wales.